I came across a very cool tool for forecasting commodities.
Here's a small excerpt from the Economist's zinc forecast.
Stocks and prices
"The ILZSG estimates the global zinc surplus at 264,000 tonnes in 2010. However, we estimate a smaller surplus of 175,000 tonnes in 2010. Our assessment of supply and demand conditions suggest that the market will also be in oversupply this year, which will push up stocks to the equivalent of just over five weeks of consumption. LME warehouse stocks had already jumped by 5% between the end of 2010 and the end of the first quarter of 2011. However, a small deficit in 2012 will push down stocks."
This is a forecasting app by the economist, so you will need to register first for the service at: http://gfs.eiu.com/about/
They also predict zinc prices will rise 30% over by 2012.
There is a lot of great info and data here on all commodities and Geoff Day stated in his last quarterly that Kagara will ramp up zinc production to 50,000 tonnes in 2012 (12,500 per quarter) against current quarter production of 7,119 tonnes.
Interestingly, he also said Kagara could ramp up zinc production over the next five years to 100,000-120,000 tonnes if needed. I like this new CEO.
As a major zinc and copper player, Kagara is well-positioned for future growth. Lots of irons in the fire.
KZL Price at posting:
56.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
