CDA (ASX) Youtube videos suggest the Minelab 7000 is a winner

Originally posted by billyen ↑

I'm now going to announce my guess on the codan Aug. earnings number. I'll repeat this is a total guess and has come from me mostly talking to dealers and a lot of research. Looking at every review (good and bad) and videos that's out there. Reading every financial note and comment. They announce in Aug. so we are 6-7 weeks away. If the earnings are solid then the stocks going to move up in a big way so this is a opportunity to do real research and make some money from it.

Even though the GPZ 7000 is a very important part of the company's earnings they have other divisions and other products. The new "go-find" line shouldn't be dismissed either as I think it's going to put a nice pop in the earnings itself. Plus, they are still selling the GPX 5000 at a discounted price for those that still want PI and a cheaper price and other lower priced models.

They had a respectable first half of 6M NPAT a 39% increase over the same period. This was with no new product sales!
One would have to assume that they'll match the 6M so the new products are the gravy. They stated that they've sold 25,000 Go-Find detectors. With a decent margin I'd expect them to pull 2M NPAT out of those sales (about 1 cent in earnings)

My main focus has been figuring out the GPZ 7000 sales number.
As I said before, I think they'll make 3M of profit on every 1000 sold. That's 1.7 cents of EPS.
So how many have they sold???

I've been talking to dealers and customers all over Australia. I've did a bit of traveling and have tried to make my gentle inquires in person. First to try and get a sales number per store then find every store that sells the GPZ 7000 in Australia. The Australian number is important as it's the base for my world-wide guess. Then I researched the U.S and then the rest of the world. I backed this up by trying to get a overall number of detector enthusiast in each part of the world and made a separate guess as to what percentage of them would buy a GPZ. Taking into consideration that the stock market and real-estate markets are near all-time highs and people have some extra cash to buy things they'll enjoy and maybe make some money off.

I thought before the number would be somewhere between 2000-3000 GPX 7000 sales. I now think that number will be 3400-4200+.

That would give them 6.8 cents eps plus 1 cent for the Go-find. for a total of almost 8 cents!
Now you have to think how much the other detectors have sold. Then how much the other division that account for 40-50% of the company's revenue. That, I have no idea but...if Codan produced 6M of NPAT with-out new products, I feel good in thinking that 5M is a ultra conservative guess. That's almost 3 cents in EPS.

I believe Codan will announce 19M in second half earnings ( 10.7 cents eps)
That would give it a full year 25M (14 cents eps) . Still way less than the 45M Codan made in '13 with a lower priced flagship product.

At Codan's current price that gives it a P.E of 8 . Codan trades at a P.E of 20-25 . With a confirmation of growth and solid earnings I'd expect a P.E of 25-35

Giving Codan a price of $3.50-$4.90 pushing is back up to it's all time highs.
That's why I've spent so much time and energy on this. I keep thinking I must be wrong somewhere in my calculations. Even if I'm half wrong, it's a $2 stock.

The price has come down from it's 52 week high of 27 cents but, on very little volume. So that means not a lot of people are buying but, not a lot are selling either. Most of the heavy buying was in the 80cents-$1.10 range. Plus, once it cracks the 250M market cap it will pop back into the ASX 200 and the funds will need to buy it. Technically it's sweet. Above all moving averages and trendlines.

Please feel free to discuss my evaluation of Codan. Have I missed something? Am I being too optimistic? I got my "guesses" from speaking to real people and customers. There are over 2400 GPZ youtube video's. I assume they aren't all sharing the same unit? That's 2000 sales there. Only a small percentage like to do video's and even want to. So I could guess 2000 sales just from that but, I went more in-depth. The market out there has also shown that they'll buy a expensive detector, if it finds gold.

However, the gold price is lower and you hear all these "I have a friend who knows the unit is crap and I've been around 30 years" but, they seem to all be coming from the shorts with nothing to back it up. I've seen and read 100+ reviews. 70% say it's a great unit. The rest say it's good but, expensive. A handful don't like it. If it was a dud...everyone would be saying it and posting it online? Right? Think about it. I would...I just spent 11k and it doesn't work. So that's why I'm feeling really good about the GPZ.
What every happens...we'll know in a few weeks!

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Last $15.91		Change 0.020(0.13%)		Mkt cap ! $2.785B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$16.00	$16.05	$15.90	$4.580M	287.0K

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