NTU (ASX) Yet a further 60% HRE deletion by China

Originally posted by ausheds: ↑

Two points there, you need to look at the development of PMM design specifically around NdFeB, high efficiency motors at lower operating temps, and secondly at the forecasts hybrids vs BEV where hybrids PMM not under constant load have a lower operating temp.

Remembering the ONLY rationale for HRE/NdFeB is the reduction in loss of magnetism at higher temperature, offset by a loss of performance + higher input costs.

There are currently a host of new PMM designs emerging, not difficult to find, but here's one that spells it out very clearly:

"You can offset this kind of thermal cut-off by using more expensive magnet materials – neodymium itself demagnetizes quickly as the temperature rises, but you can specify your magnets to include additives that bump the thermal shutdown temperature higher, as long as you don't mind the additional cost of these fancy high-temp magnets.

"The spoke motor has magnets arranged at 90 degrees to the hub, like the spokes of a wheel," says Foley. "And there's laminations in between each of those spokes. This arrangement gets better use of the magnetic material; it means that for a certain torque we can use 25 percent less magnet material, or use the same amount and get 25 percent more torque.

"It also means, because the magnet sits right on top of the hub, we can get water inside the hub and cool the magnet directly. So the spoke architecture gives us more torque to start with, but more importantly it lets us get water right underneath the magnet and get it much better cooled.

"We don't need expensive high-temp magnets. We can use the cheapest, cooking-grade neodymium magnet because we can keep it cool enough and still maintain the performance."

https://newatlas.com/equipmake-electric-spoke-motor-interview/54694/

View attachment 1398393

If this forecast proves out anywhere near accurate we'll find 49% of all vehicles 2025 will have some form of hybrid electrification vs 8% BEV. With the rapid advancement of high efficiency PMM I'd suggest we'll find very little HRE in the 49% hybrid not under constant load, and significantly less in the 8% BEV than current.

An article I found at the start of my research questioning the HRE mantra that made little sense to me is still very relevant today, written by an egghead with a remarkably prescient grasp of the economics RE/PMM:

http://spontaneousmaterials.com/Papers/Spring2013.pdf

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Thanks Ausheads.

I have found your contributions to this forum invaluable. [Can I sell you a few horseshoes?]

I need to consolidate my portfolio as I have too many shares to research at your level.

My knowledge of metallurgy is inadequate for me to understand how the Dy can be concentrated at the grain boundaries, and how stable this is.
In relation to the hybrid v BEV ratio, one factor which will have a major influence is the Chinese EV incentive program, the latest version of which preferences EVs with a range of 180 miles.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackperkowski/2018/07/13/china-shifts-subsidies-for-electric-vehicles/#5d33df855703

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