I won't be too excited if it's cash flow positive unless there is a fat dividend given at the end of the year. Again, even if dividend is given, why shouldn't they be spending money in growing the market? I think is important to know the customer acquisition cost & customer life time value. If they spend $200 to acquire a customer that will be spending $500 for the next 5 years, I think it is acceptable to have negative cashflow for the first 2 years.
The founders obviously know the value of the company since they have not been selling a single share & should the share price continues to fall, it might be in favor to them, given that top 20 share holders controls 85% of the company.
I don't have any estimation for the Q but base on their latest update, the key metrics such as % of repeat customers & revenue per top up can formulate a good lifetime value for each X they distribute.
Assuming they had distributed 30K chips to date & 5 years (Base on their depreciation of 5 years) Customer life time value is $500 (since each customers reloads around $40+ for 1.8x in 12 months), we are looking at potentially USD$12mil revenue over 5 years.
The next question would be how much can they grow out of 30K? I'm pretty sure there are more than 30K customers who find value in their product. The strategy that they are deploying using Partners, is it scalable and effective?
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