Latest update from Colin Twiggs on US market.

Interesting he states bear market which hinges on unlikely resolution of trade talks.

Retailsales fall while trade talks stall

By Colin Twiggs
February 15, 2019 8:30 p.m. ET (12:30 p.m. AEDT)

First,please read the Disclaimer.

Retailsales

Retail sales growth (USA advance retail sales excluding autosand parts) fell sharply in December, indicating that consumer confidence isfading despite strong employment figures.

The decline in consumer confidence also shows in lower January2019 light vehicle sales.

Tradetalks make little progress

Triviumprovide a useful update on US-China trade negotiations:

The latest round of trade talks with the US are finishing up aswe go to press. There hasn't been much progress (Bloomberg): "As of Friday afternoon, there hadbeen no visible progress on efforts to narrow the gap around structural reformsto China?s economy that the U.S. has requested, according to three U.S. andChinese officials who asked not to be identified because the talks wereprivate......Chinese officials are angry about what they see as US efforts toundermine their state-led economy.?

These are issues that will take generations to resolve. Thechance of a quick fix is highly unlikely.

Stocks

The stock market continues to rally on the back of a solidearnings season.

Of the 216 issues (505 in the S&P 500 index) with fulloperating comparative data 154 (71.3%) beat, 51 (23.6%) missed, and 11 mettheir estimates; 135 of 215 (62.8%) beat on sales. (S&PDow Jones Indices)

Index volatility remains high, however, and a 21-day Volatilitytrough above 1.0% would warn of a bear market. S&P 500 retreat below 2600would reinforce the signal.

Crude prices continue to warn of a fall in global demand.

As do commodity prices.

10-Year Treasury yields are testing support at 2.50% and a TrendIndex peak below zero warns of buying pressure from investors seeking safety(yields fall as prices rise).

The Nasdaq 100 shows rising Money Flow but I believe this issecondary in nature. The next correction is likely to provide a clearerpicture.

My conclusion is the same as last week. This is a bear market.Recovery hinges on an unlikely resolution of the US-China 'trade dispute'.