Hi 64eheh and Welcome
Agree that you 'need to learn as well', that is why we are here....and glad to hear that 'finally you are getting good results with your trading' I am not sure of the stat, perhaps you can elaborate if you happen to know, but lets say for example that 20 out of every 100 traders/investors will not bust their account. However then again, some of the best traders have busted their accounts a couple of times before they finally worked it out.
In terms of a shakeout, one of the ways in which VSA and Wyckoff is useful, is that is can assist one to recognize a shakeout by the way the bar develops when compared to previous bars. Either way, if I am shaken out of a trade, I dont care as I will protect my capital every time. That is why I have been able to survive in the markets. If I am shaken out, and it does happen, however I like the company for either a particular FA or TA reason, I will keep trying to get a foot in the door. If the overall setup of the stock is favourable and still meets my criteria for a entry, then I am happy to pay a higher price. That is why so many retailers go broke. They think that because they could buy the stock yesterday 20% lower they dont act...this is due to the makeup of people.....and the CO knows this and acts on it ruthlessly. Buy high sell higher.....cliche but often true....and one that I trade by....
Charting and Trading are 2 totally different fields, you are correct. We have already talked about this area earlier in this thread, perhaps scroll back to see. We agreed with Jako that we would learn the backbone of VSA and Wyckoff first. Then once we had the 'theory' part down pat, we would move on to working through the various ways that we can thread the two together.
Jako always reminds me that resistance and support are potential support and resistance zones......etc etc....Everyone here has their own way of trading and that is another reason why I wanted to learn the VSA/Wyk way....It can be used in any market and in any timeframe. That certainly is attractive to me.
It will be another weapon that I can deploy to assist me to silently stalk the CO, instead of the other way around.
Appreciate that we all have different ways of coming to our conclusion around what might be a entry price, whether it is based on intrinsic value or numerous others, and thanx for sharing the way that you do it. It is always helpful to listen to the various ways in which different various market participants operate. Comparative market cap analysis that you use and from what you shared are very good at, would be something that obviously triggered a neuron at somepoint in your trading/investing experience . That is the great thing about HC. We all have ways in which we operate in the market, and no two are could ever be the same. The reason for that is that we all have individual personalities, which if left unchecked can also send a trader/investor broke.
Sure there are pure TA chartists, and sure there are Fundamental Purists, but overall each of us will work towards and deploy the methods that works best for them. As Technological Advancements are constantly being created by some of the brightest minds whom work for Broking Houses, Fund Managers, etc, it is even more important than in previous decades in my opinion that we as traders/investors continue to evolve. If we dont, we run the risk of becoming irrelevant in the marketplace. Whom would have thought 20 years ago, that traders would be battling against the ever changing landscape of Algo Trading Computers. We either continue to re-invent ourselves or become redundant so to speak.
Your example of Market Cap Analysis is a great one. Whilst it is not something new, it is however a method that you have added to your arsenal to give you an edge. Afterall, the more we can become better at operating in the market, the greater our potential returns. By explanation, operating in the market captures both having different areas of knowledge around market dynamics, which can include, trading techniques and tricks so to speak, various TA tools and interpretations, Value Investing, various Fundamental analysis etc
Jako has always taught me from day dot, that reading charts is not a mechanical method. It is one that some describe as a art form. It encapsulates a picture at a point in time and there are many different lenses that it can be seen through. Only last week, we were talking about how support and resistance are not that in isolation so to speak. As you highlighted and Jako also has been strong on since day dot, is reminding us that they are potential levels only, or potential zones of supply or demand ie not fixed and be flexible like you said.
For me personally, there would be no trading without the charting. Charting is a means to an end. It helps me to discover potential candidates, assists me in screening some that I would never trade, allows me to reflect on area where I see an opportunity for entry and for that matter exit, all under different market conditions. It is the same with FA. Whilst TA is my stronger trait than FA, I have always had the keep on learning attitude. Again, it is so I continue to stay relevant in ever changing financial markets.
So maybe some in HC go bottom fishing or seek that so called bottom or top. Those whom have been around and survived various market conditions know that they are low odds plays. What is worse is when a trader has a success with a bottom trade as it reinforces that false belief that trading in that manner will keep that person kicking goals. We both know the eventual outcome of that strategy.
Lastly is trading enjoyable.....for me some days, and others not. I would be lying otherwise. Luckily and touching wood I have more enjoyable than not.
Really appreciate your input 64eheh. You have left us with some food for though. Best Wishes.
PS Next time you have that Market Cap value lense on like you did with SMN and now probably with PSF, please come back and let us know so that we can hop onboard too....and learn more about how you came to that conclusion.
Cheers
GF
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