Firstly, don't overthink it to much, just look at the bar (spread and close), and the volume, then look at what has gone on in the recent past.
And from that think about what that suggests will happen in the future.
(a lot of the time, there will be multiple answers, but very soon after the next bar opens you will get a decent idea what about to happen when you are trading it)
My guess why that second bar didn't have a longer tail, is because there was too much demand (buying pressure) for the stock at the time, and this kept the spread narrow. And the accumulators are unlikely to force it down now, unless there is something in it for them (which was unlikely at the time.....).
No I wouldn't think the midbar close on bar three was engineered, supply or selling pressure was starting to arrive (probably by stale holders getting out, or buyers in the accumulation zone taking profits), and it was this supply that caused the midbar close..
I don't exactly know why it was that bar in particular that broke out, perhaps it was something to do with organising promotion for the stock, sector or overall market to help gain some leverage in the marketplace, and reduce the selling pressure.........it was a Friday, so maybe the accumulators wanted to give it a push, so the the market could think about it all weekend, and maybe do some promotion then as well.......or perhaps it was on an announcement.....I really don't know.....
(Tom Williams would often say that asking to many 'whys and wherefores' will just drive you mad, and even if you could ask the movers and shakers, could you trust them to actually tell the truth....)
I can see what you are doing with your lines of support and resistance, I'll probably add some soon as well.
Your read on Box 2 is quite good. My guess in that first bar is that the retailers just wanted to get on with it, and take it higher. But the accumulators were not interested in playing the game. They might have even sold a few to add some pressure, and then left the market to 'stew' for the week (with just a few daily stirs of the pot added, when necessary)
And your reads of boxes 3 & 4 was pretty good as well (just don't over think things too much......)
Good Job GF, you will work all this out OK I'm sure,
cheers
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and I didnt even need to phone a friend.
