OK, when I was learning, I got the most benefit from what is called "Bar by Bar" analysis.
So I have picked out a chart, it doesn't matter what the chart is, and it doesn't really matter what the time frame is (it is a weekly chart if anyone
has to know).
It is just a chart, and we will follow it through a few bars at a time each night, and see where it goes.
Questions are welcome.
For now, just take it for granted that the stock on the chart below has been within an accumulation zone/trading range for sometime,
and the creek is at 70cps, and the ice is at 41cps.
The creek is the top line of a trading range, and the ice is the bottom line.
Effectively to breakout or move forward, price will need to somehow cross or jump over the creek.
And if price was to fall below the ice, holders are likely to drown
I am not aware of these two terms actually being used by Richard Wyckoff himself, however they are taught in the Wyckoff course at the WSMI (Wyckoff Stock Market Institute - which is where the Wyckoff Trading course still is offered - last time I looked the cost is well over a grand USD).
Anyway each analogy, Bob Evans from the WSMI, had a little story, so that people who completed the Wyckoff course could picture what was going on-
THE “JUMP” ACROSS THE CREEK” ANALOGY
The term “jump” was first used by Robert G. Evans, who piloted the Wyckoff Associates educational enterprise for numerous years after the death of Richard D. Wyckoff. One of his more captivating analogies was the “jump across the creek” (JAC) story he used to explain how a market would break out of a trading range. In the story, the market is symbolised by a Boy Scout, and the trading range by a meandering creek, with its “upper resistance line” defined by the rally peaks within the range. After probing the edge of the creek and discovering that the flow of supply was starting to dry up, the Boy Scout would retreat in order to get a running start to “jump across the creek.” The power of the movement by the Boy Scout would be measured by price spread and volume
The Ice Story.
We imagine the market in the person of a Boy Scout walking over a frozen river in the midst of winter. If support, the ice, is strong - the river covered with ice has no difficulty in supporting the weight of the Boy Scout. That support is seen as a wiggly line connecting the lows, are the supports, in a trading range. A failure by the Boy Scout to reach the upper resistance level of the Trading Range would be a warning of potential weakness. Weakness of the ice would be signalled by the Boy Scout breaking support or falling through the ice. The Boy Scout then has two chances to get back above the ice (i.e., creating a bullish “Spring” situation). On the first upward rally the Boy Scout may fail to regain a footing above the ice. If so, then he will sink lower into the river in order to gather strength to try and rally once and crack the ice. If on this second attempt, the Boy Scout again fails to penetrate above the ice, he would be most likely to sink downward and drown (i.e., a Bear Market/ Markdown phase would occur).
Note - a 'spring' is the opposite to an upthrust, where price dips below a support line but eventually recovers to close back above it again.
both stories are taken from this short Wyckoff PDF, which some of you might like to look at or print out-
http://www.hankpruden.com/MTWyckoffSchematics.pdf
(and obviously Bob Evans had a great liking for the Boy Scouts......)
Finally, both the creek and the ice are considered to be wiggly lines that join the highs in a trading range (the creek), and the lows in a trading range (the ice).
I generally take the liberty of drawing a straight horizontal line across for both, and (if necessary) I can just picture the wiggly line in my head.
OK, here is the chart-
I will properly go through the ins and outs of a trading range or accumulation zone in detail another time.
However the basic idea is that the supply (selling) needs to be mopped up within the range, as selling pressure will thwart (retard) a breakout.
And if any of the supply that will be waiting to sell should price breakout higher, can be enticed into selling as well, then all the better (I'll explain why when I cover the subject in detail).
I marked some of the interesting bars on the chart-
View attachment 139648
View attachment 139649
