Wyckoff trading method, page-2433

This week is another Quiz, as they have proved fairly popular.
Instead of testing your ability to identify a certain VSA or Wyckoff principle,
this week I want you to look at the chart and decide if the stock will most likely go higher, lower or sideways.
If possible explain briefly why you made your choice, and include any linework that supports your thoughts.

Then once the results are up (later tonight, behind a spoiler), ask any questions .....

I suggest that if you are going to play,
Take a copy of the chart and paste it into Microsoft Paint, or some similar software, and draw lines or arrows and/or comments on it.
When finished save it to file and then upload it back onto this thread, and preferably hide the chart behind a 'spoiler' if possible so as not to affect the opinions of other members.
I won't be trying to trick you at all, so don't 'over think' the exercise.

enjoy,


..
The chart below is a bit more difficult, look at the price action and volumes carefully.
There are some decent hints on the chart, but you would not have known for sure what to expect.
The probabilities are higher for one side for sure, so consider what price did on the volume each time......

Spoiler : ***Answer***

..
..
This chart was the more tricky one to work out, and while you would not have known the coming result for sure.  There was enough info to suggest the downside held the higher probability..
In a nutshell, the gap up high volume bars should always be respected and questioned (as they may be 'full of supply', or they may be legitimately strong).  In this case the next bar had even higher volume, and price hardly made any more ground higher.  At this point you could 'suspect' supply was coming in (and short term, day and momentum traders should have seen the potential weakness and sold).  Then when the next bar was down in response, it probably confirms the selling pressure in the previous two bars.
The downbar has much lower volume though, so the sellers did not chase price lower.
Price then moves sideways and attempts to consolidate the gains, by absorbing any further supply coming in.
It even shakes out in an attempt to remove the sellers.
But if you look across the whole sideways range, and notice all the high volume upbars that made no ground higher at all (this is the telltale sign after the initial weakness was seen).  Take note that almost all of them saw the next bar closing lower.....which suggests there was selling on the upbar and helps to confirms ongoing selling pressure.   Someone or some group is most likely selling a large position up here, and are possibly setting new short positions at the highs.

cheers