Wyckoff trading method, page-230

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    I hope you don't mind, but I grabbed your chart and marked some lines on it GF.
    I marked some support and resistance lines, initially where price had pulled back and found support each time, and also a couple of old highs, as price can sometimes find support on top of old highs (in a text book perfect chart, the old highs (resistance) will line up exactly with the lows (support), however in the real world, they don't often line up exactly, for any number of reasons, which is why I often refer to zones of support and resistance, rather than exact lines).
    What it shows on the IPL chart, is price slicing down through several potential support levels, and showing them little respect as it does so.
    While IPL may be a candidate for a future long entry, the technical damage caused recently will probably take a fair while to repair.
    (although there is always some chance of a 'V' shaped recovery, they are not that common)

    In a text book perfect world (of a stock that is fundamentally worth re-buying...), you would normally see strong support come in for the stock once prices reaches a level where 'real value' is now seen by professional traders. Usually forming some sort of climactic action (a Strong sign of strength).

    After that a supply vacuum would form and briefly allow price to rise after the climactic action, and this will often also mark the level where supply again enters the market and knocks price lower again. The low of the climactic bar, and the high of the supply vacuum bar will often then mark the upper and lower limits of a new trading range.
    In this new trading range price will generally move up and down, shaking out the market and mopping up supply.
    It is this supply that is still waiting above the current price levels that will thwart any future markup in price. So a process takes place which has the purpose of encouraging as much of that free float or supply  'still waiting to sell' to do so (probably at a loss).
    And the most common ways to get this done is to shakeout and frustrate the market repeatedly.
    Scare holder's into thinking prices will be much lower soon, and encouraging them to sell and recover 'some' money, another way is by taking price up to the top of the trading range (this is fairly 'cheap' to do as any serious supply has been dealt will already during the process of the climactic action and supply vacuum), then when holders can almost 'get out for break even' a few different things might happen-
    price may be spiked, encouraging momentum traders to buy from the stale holders, but then not support the price at this higher level, and without the support from the professional traders, price will usually fall back after a short period of frantic retail support. Then the new traders who are late to the party are not so concerned about taking small losses, and the older supply can then be mopped up back within the trading range (at a price which is more palatable to the professionals who are tidying up the loose ends).
    Another way may be that at the trading range highs, price just moves sideways for a while (on a lack of demand for higher prices), encouraging stale holders to sell for just a small loss, and then letting price fall away (giving the stale holder a bad 'gut feel' for the market, as they were almost 'out'), this is where shakeouts can be beneficial.  
    And another is that  just the time taken going sideways for an extended period of time, can often just 'wear out' the stale holder's, who may eventually just want to sell out of their 'dog stock', so as to allow them to reinvest any funds they can recover back into another stock.

    The reason for all this, is that when the time is right to begin marking up the stock, the professionals only want to 'buy or absorb' minimal amounts of stock as they take price higher. If they are overwhelmed by too much supply, it may be considered too expensive yet to take it up, and will go back through the process again of shaking out the market and frustrating the stale holders into selling their stock at lower (cheaper) prices.

    So usually there is quite some time from where price is first bought on climactic action, to when the serious mark up begins.
    Mind you, there is always the opportunity to trade the supply vacuum bounce off the lows, if you can identify the climactic action soon enough, and are nimble enough to sell at the right time (practice makes perfect).

    Anyway (I got a little carried away there....), here is the chart that I changed slightly.....
    IPL 240116.png
    Z31.png
 
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