Hi Seagull - sorry I didn't have a chance to reply earlier. I...

Hi Seagull - sorry I didn't have a chance to reply earlier.

I haven't done any delving into AGY further from when I smelled fishy volume - and that was only to see that the next day an announcement had been made. Looking at the monthly chart this looks like an RTO. Aug - Nov 15 the "vultures' accumulate. Jan 16 things start to pick up. Feb we see a move up closing near the bottom (absorption). Mar slightly higher volume closing about 1/3 from bottom (absorption). April - about Febs volume (Feb 6 point spread) for a 21 point spread. Indicates that a lot of the stale supply has been cleaned but closing 1/3 from the top supply still exists. May sees the highest vol to date & widest spread closing at the top. June is a down bar closing in the middle indicating May contained hidden supply. July is a widespread downbar closing just off the low on relatively low volume.

From this point on the stock trades sideways in a range with supply entering above 029 and support @ 019.

March breaks through on volume indicating bullish sentiment.

So we have 019 initially as resistance and then becoming support. 029 sees supply enter and 046 marks the top of the creek.



Looking at the weekly, we see absorption through to May where price breaks down and consolidates until mid March 17 where it breaks out on volume, then is tested and confirmed moving through 046 on medium volume closing near the high. The first week of April sees the highest spread to date closing 1/3 from the top on highish volume indicating good ease of movement. The weekly chart looks quite bullish.



The daily chart shows trading sideways until 13/3 where price breaks through 029 supply/resistance on medium volume, followed by a low volume test and confirmation, etc until 31/3 where we move up on average volume and continue to do so on similar volume through to 3/4. 4/4 sees price jump the creek @ 046 where we see similar volume but a contraction of the spread - indicating the supply encountered. Price struggles around 050 until 10/4 when desperate buying in the afternoon hints at the next days announcement. 11/4 day of announcement sees price gap up over supply on substantial volume closing 1/4 from the top - indicating supply. 12/4 sees 3/4 of previous days volume for 1/4 of the previous days spread - again indicating supply. 13/4 sees a medium spread retrace on medium volume indicating support. 18/4 sees another gap up closing mid bar on relatively high volume. 19/4 sees a lowish volume test of support.



Gap from 18/4 has been potentially tested. The supply that entered 12/4 may have surprised the market operator, hence the regroup and gap up on 18/4.

To my eye stale supply is entering and the operator is going to have to defend the 11/4 gap up. If that doesn't hold then 065, 050 & 046 are next.