Yes it is a bit tricky here no doubt.
It could easily accelerate higher, and it could just as easily breakdown (in fact more easily).
Standing back and thinking about this, and understanding what has happened recently........
Price went sideways in a reasonably wide range for considerable time (about four months or so), in what looks a lot like a distribution zone.
This has left multiple levels of potential resistance above the current price.
So it would be really difficult (for me or any reasonable T/A trader) to go long around these levels at all.
You would need to have a lot of faith in the F/A, because T/A says that you should really only be looking for shorts at these levels.
(unless there had been a massive climactic bar or something resembling a capitulation that might have removed all the supply potentially waiting above)
Below a previous trading range (or distribution zone), you should be looking for weak bars at levels of resistance. Looking for where potential price breakdowns may occur to open a short position (and if no breakdowns come along, you haven't missed out on anything).
Long positions should really only come now once price has broken back through the majority of the old trading range, and shown enough 'intent' to breakout above it, and then the 'buy' would come from the test of the breakout. So even though you would not have bought at the 'best' price, you would avoid all the risk that goes with opening a long position below multiple levels of potential resistance.
Can you follow that OK, and understand why I say that, I am not having a go at you or anything (I had to learn this stuff as well at one point) ??
Price has effectively broken down, and it sits in the relative safety from supply, just below the 'last gasp' levels of the old trading range.
But there are considerable headwinds above the current price, with multiple levels of potential resistance.
It is just plain dangerous to buy it here below all that potential resistance, only the 'true believers' should buy it here, yes there is a chance it will work out OK, but there are much higher chances that it will stall out at one of these levels above, and just go sideways for an extended period, or fail and break down completely.
Personally, I would only be buying this after a decent break above 98cps, if/when price come back to test the breakout, no matter how good the F/A is.
And if the F/A was so strong that I just had to have some sort of position in my portfolio, just buy a small (half, third or quarter) position, and pyramid in as it successfully moves through the various levels of potential resistance above.
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cheers
