Wyckoff trading method, page-1543

@Beany72

Gee, today's bar leaves price vulnerable for RXP.........

It hasn't broken down yet, and a reversal would potentially 'save the day' (for now), but any downside follow through would possibly see price breakdown.
If it is going to recover here, it really needs to recover pretty quickly, otherwise even if it does recover eventually, if ongoing supply continues to come in, it will eventually overcome the support, and force price lower.
Theoretically though, price has found support throughout the range of that potential shakeout to the left, and price needs to break below it's low to actually breakdown (officially). However experience has taught me that this re-test of the shakeout leaves price very vulnerable (especially with that nasty looking upthrusty thing in the near term background - on announcement), and the failure rate would be about 50/50 from this point.

Don't get me wrong here, F/A is a really great thing, and should be strongly followed for sure (Tom Williams always said this), however T/A is tracking market sentiment, and you need both in harmony to get a really nice trade. Many times I have seen a stock with great potential F/A, either do nothing for an extended period, or get smashed, because market sentiment is currently neutral, or against it (for whatever reason). And vice versa, a stock with questionable F/A gains a massive uplift, because market sentiment is currently with it.

F/A is great overall, but T/A (market sentiment) is very strong in the near term.......

any thoughts ??



cheers