Wyckoff trading method, page-1425

Hi @Beany72, I don't know anything about the fundamentals, I don't even know what they do (or propose to do in the future...)
And yes, at the end of a trading range, if price is poised to breakout, there is often a shakeout of some sort, and also a test.

While watching this chart previously, I initially thought the price action was positive & price would continue to accelerate up and away back in mid November.
And since then, I thought price action has looked more and more suspicious, as I mentioned the last time we looked this chart.
For me it has started to look more like part of a distribution process, than a consolidation of the recent gains, although neither is confirmed as yet..
It can often be difficult to determine which it is at certain times, as can be seen in a couple of those charts I posed earlier this week, and it is only in hindsight, that we know for sure.

So you may be totally correct, and the chart maybe poised to accelerate away, but for me to be confident of that happening, I would initially need to see price back above that last pivot (@91.5) that was recently broken. And even more promising would be for price to rise further than that & close back above the high of last Wednesday's widespread downbar (potential breakdown bar).
On the chart below I have marked the last pivot, and shown what could potentially be a variation of the two bar reversal or shakeout, which in this case is a three bar reversal at the minute (and to properly complete it & close back above the initial downbar, which would be potentially bullish, it would show as a four bar reversal...or shakeout ---------FWIW, I have found that any longer than four bars is stretching the reasoning a bit.......so four is the max for me.......although I guess in theory any number is possible).
And finally, that initial downbar could also be a breakdown bar (marked), and the subsequent price action a failure to recover back into the previous trading range, which is how I am viewing it for now.....at least until the price action actually shows otherwise.

Anyway, no matter what happens, I don't expect it will take too long now, for the direction to be confirmed.

I personally would not take an entry on this chart until I knew exactly what was going on now, and for me that means I would need to see price actually break out above the 98cps level and preferably come back & successfully test the breakout. Or actually breakdown and then show it is unable to recover the lost ground.
This is mainly because price has been in a sideways trend for some time now, so even on a good announcement price may only be able rise to the highs of the range and remain within the channel...it may also find a good announcement is just what is needed to create enough demand to sell into.

So if I really felt I Had to enter around this level for some reason, I would probably only take a half or a third of a position initially, with the intention of scaling in further as it started to work, and the milestones were being achieved, probably also taking some sort of profit around the 98cps level, and then reloading them on a successful breakout of the range...... but then again I am suspicious of the price action........



cheers