Thanks Jako, for taking the time for such an amazing in-depth exploration. Into the notes it goes
It's almost like at each point the CM is letting it go of the gas and testing the response, if there is no demand to sell into, the CM nudges just enough to find buyers to distribute into and on and on until the inevitable news event letting the CM finish up and demand is finally exhausted.
Your explanation of expected reactions reminds me a rule from another Wyckoffian I follow. If it feels wrong, get out!
The reactions to the low-activity bars at the right-side of the trading range aren't awe inspiring. You signal potential weakness at the beginning of the range, but working on the principle that the trend is up until a sign of weakness changes the behavior — would the theoretical Wyckoff SOW the break below the ice and the inability to even get near testing it? In VSA I imagine you have End of a Rising Market or another categorisation?
The last pivot low in a range is a good tip, by the way.
Some quotes that are applicable...
"Both formations: distribution or re-accumulation appear similar at their commencement. Therefore, it is only as the trading range matures after a period of sideways movement that tell-tale signs of distribution or of re-accumulation reveal themselves in the stock’s behaviour." Hank Pruden.
“The market will always tells you what to do. It tells you: Get in. Get out. Move your stop. Close out. Stay neutral. Wait for a better chance. All these things the market is continually impressing upon you, and you must get into the frame of mind where you are in reality taking your orders from the action of the market itself — from the tape.” Richard D. Wyckoff
