Wyckoff trading method, page-1408

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    Glad you are asking questions @Incongruous, there should be more of them on this thread....best way to learn I reckon.....

    Firstly before I go to that chart......most bars and their associated volume leave an impression, either positive or negative, once they are complete.
    So you are usually expecting a certain response to the previous completed bar, and this response will usually make very good sense, and you can wisely nod your head and say to yourself, yep that is probably what would have been expected after that previous bar.......
    Of course, each response will be limited to some degree by the overall influence in the background of the chart, but the expected response should be there in some form no matter what.
    ***So when you see bars that don't show the expected response, particularly if this happens repeatedly within a trading range, your radar should go up that something unexpected is happening (and start thinking how you might take advantage of the potential situation if you are correct)........This unexpected response to the price action is often times some supply coming in (selling pressure), or absorption/accumulation of supply (buying) of some sort, mostly on just a minor or intermediate scale, but sometimes on a very large or major scale.

    So for instance, if you see a decent high volume shakeout, the expectation is either a (sharp) rise in price as a response, or a lower volume test bar.
    And continuing that scenario, If there was a decent high volume shakeout, then a low volume test, the expectation would be for a reasonable price rise in response, most likely over the next few bars, with the spreads slowly narrowing over time, as the response becomes less powerful. However if there was just one (decent) upbar in response, then an upthrusty looking bar on average volume with a level close, and then a narrow spread upbar closing in the middle on low volume (lack of demand), and then a downbar of some sort, I would be wondering why there was not the expected 'follow through' to the upside after a shakeout and successful test.
    In circumstances like this, your radar should go up, that something unexpected maybe at foot.

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    Now that chart (above), which is a major distribution of a large position or positions.

    Bar A is a narrow spread upbar on low volume that suggests a lack of demand for the upside. Expectation is for the downside (or further weak bars).
    Before it came an upthrusty looking bar, and prior to that was a decent looking up bar. So there was little follow through after the nice looking upbar as price moved back towards the level of where the serious initial supply came in.

    Bar B is a narrow spread downbar, which looks like an attempt to test on low volume, but the next bar is down, so it is a failed test. The expected response to a failed test is further downside, or at least a secondary test on even lower volume. However, the next bar is up, and is nicely up......closing above the previous bar's high.

    Bar C is similar to bar A, showing a lack of demand, more downside is expected & occurs.

    Bar D looks like a slight upbar on low volume, again suggesting a lack of demand, the downside is expected (or further weak bars), price moves higher over a couple of more bars in response to bar E.

    Bar E is a narrow spread up bar on decent volume, which suggests it contained increased supply (selling), the narrow spread on that amount of volume suggests that whatever demand was in the market at that time was being satisfied by the sellers.....this is what kept the spread relatively narrow.....perhaps there was an announcement at this time creating increased demand which was sold into.

    Bar F looks a bit like bar B, an attempt to test, which fails.....and rightly so (after what has happened previously for a few weeks).......

    ***Note that little pivot low between bars E & F, that is where there should be a horizontal line (the last pivot low in a sideways range is always important, as is the ice line), which if broken would offer a first warning of an impending price breakdown (with the ice line as the actual overall, last gasp, line to watch).

    So what is going on here can be difficult to understand as it is developing, especially when you see it happening for the first time or two.
    And it won't always look exactly the same......each time has different variations.......
    But generally, there will be a decent upbar on high volume that suggests selling pressure. Now price may continue a bit higher after this initial serious supply comes in, or it might just go straight into a sideways range. But after that initial supply bar, you will see price fail to follow through to the upside after potential strength (because any demand that is created is sold into), and also there is a lack of follow through to the downside (price is being supported enough to 'hold up' the market while the whole position is unloaded, and then short positions are set).
    You will often also see tight clustering of closes in these sideways ranges of accumulation or distribution, as the moves in either direction are not supported.

    So sometimes (especially for new players) it is not until price actually breaks down that you can look back in hindsight, and say "oh yeah" "I see what was happening".
    Mind you it is beautiful thing when you start seeing it in foresight...although you will only get 'hints' to start with (after the initial supply bar), and then it slowly starts to make sense, but is not confirmed until the breakdown actually occurs.

    Hope that helped....

    cheers
 
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