Worth a punt

Few negative points:

1. Two legal battles

2. Uncertainty in new businesses and old business.

For 1, my hunch is they are intending to stop this "I am rich and vulnerable.Please sue me for money" mindset among irresponsible borrowers and greedy lawyer. I feel they will fight this till the end instead of capitulating and settle. A victory will be a huge morale boost.

2. New businesses carries some uncertainties. But for the GLAF, they have precedence to observe i.e. MoneyTrain. I expect the book will grow to 16 million by mid year and start being profitable next FY. The MACC can be rolled into existing SACC infrastructure and process so I don't see cost going up significantly there. All in all, I feel that the new businesses have much more upside than downside. The only thing that makes market nervous is how big of an impact new SACC law has. That yet remains to be seen.

If 1 and 2 prove to be positive, i will expect the SP to double to be inline with MNY valuation. Either way, I don't question about its survival given the retail and pawn broking are doing well and paying for all the overhead. The rest is "profit". So, any 10 or 20 percent drop from here (close to net tangible), the risk is limited but the upside is pretty significant in my mind.

It is worth a punt imho.