Hopefully EPR has now completed logging of Ayrford-1 and deemed...

Hopefully EPR has now completed logging of Ayrford-1 and deemed it commercial to run casing and complete for production. I don't think we'll get a production test?

Does anybody know otherwise?

I can't remember the last discovery for onshore Victoria but if all goes well, Ayrford-1 may just be it.

What sort of flow-rates could one expect here? I'd say around 2-4mmcf/d from these such wells. In both the onshore and offshore the Waarre sands have been most productive.

As a comparison, the Casino field found a 290m gross column and produces about 45mmcf/d from each of 2 wells from small net pay intervals of about 40m. Not suer what this means but the Waarree sands are the same.
Ayrford-1 may have 11m net pay from a gross column of 25m. How does this compare?

At $4.0/mmcf, annual revenue will be over $4m per well at 3mmcf/d. If the 3-well program is successful, and we can come back for another 3 wells, making it 6 in total, we could be looking at $24m in annual revenue. Development costs could be approximately $15-$20m although operating costs would be very low. These wells would be one of the best net-back in Australia before depreciation.

Just read additional information on Casino-3 which flowed 45mmcfd from a net 9 metre interval. Importantly, pressure was 1,840 lb per sq inch. I think pressure is a key determinant of production. Does anybody concur with a numbers man's assessment? http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20031110/pdf/3jq15ln3jlcyc.pdf
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20030715/pdf/3hf9d81m5gttg.pdf

Reviewed production from other onshore in the same area. Most has ceased but production rates have averaged from 2-6mmcf/d.

These wells will not bring the house down but with infrastructure in place, a gas plant (Iona) close by and a prolific formation in Waarre, we could have a cash cow that will fund the offshore prize in P46 & P50.

Risk, amongst others, is that the gas is CO2 rather than methane.

Anyway, we'll see.