It is actually going to be high for a lot longer than most people realise because of underinvestment in exploration and development. If the world continues to grow each year we will see demand increase 1-2 Million barrels of oil each year. USA is currently capped as pipeline infrastructure is at it’s limit. Saudis and Russia can put maybe 2 Million barrels on the market in the short term but US sanctions on Russia are limiting their growth in the long term. The only nations with capacity are in trouble I.e. Venezuela, Iraq, Iran, Libya and Nigeria. If US sanctions drop Iran production by 1.5 Million bbls per day oil can only keep going up. As for China and India more than likely any trade deals with the US will involve limiting Iranian oil.
Will Santos ever recover?, page-338
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