There is no doubt these are tough times. Saudi V US shale =...

There is no doubt these are tough times. Saudi V US shale = Black Swan. Its a real Mexican Standoff.
From what I hear and read the frackers will lose but how much pain will be felt and where ? How long will it last ?
I know a half dozen people (friends/family) in the oil/gas business from operational level thru to BOD and I've bumped into most of them over the holiday period. I make a point of trying not to talk specific stocks with these guys (although I broke that rule over Palta) but they are always up for a yarn regarding the industry more generally. 2 of them have connections to US oil/gas producers and they both tell me that the Shale boys cost profile is very high and many are highly leveraged with debt. When their hedges expire there will be a big shakeup imo. That should be later this year. In the meantime exploration will contract significantly and FID's will be delayed or shelved on a global scale.
I suppose the other side of that coin is low POO = lower economic inputs and potential boosts to global GDP growth and higher demand ???? Over time ! Greater global confidence ? How long ?
Poo hit the fan post GFC off the back of lower growth forecasts but fears were over done. Was it $30 bbl ?
I have no idea how this will play out but I tend to be more optimistic than the worst case scenario's that are doing the rounds. OPEC next meet mid year. Lots of speculation between here and there
In the s/t I reckon the poo may well go lower

In terms of PNG, as Blam pointed out, we are already seeing deals being done and a "changing of the guard" with regards to asset ownership and resource consolidation at the big end. Current producers require more resources to achieve greater economies of scale and IMO this will be a focus going forward. Its a good time for picking up those "stranded assets". Cheaper to buy than find. At the fringes you have guys like this ex InterOil cashed up "guru" Phil Malachek (? spelling) sniffing around and taking a sizeable portion of CMT's 'friend/partner' KPL. I have heard his name mentioned on several occasions. The level of historic' co-operation between CMT and KPL has always intrigued me.

As for Cott and Pandora well it certainly makes the economics hard to forecast atm all depends on what your crystal ball tells you.....This environment certainly lends itself to more competitive tendering for services and materials but we are not at that stage yet. The fact that Pandora has been included in a number of potential "aggregation strategies" reconfirms for me that this is a strategic asset apart from its stand alone potential. At the least FLNG offers a favourable cost profile over terrestrial alternatives.
For me it means that Pandora probably paints a target on CMT's back, unfortunately if an offer comes our way it wont be what it would have been 4-6 months ago.
If CMT at worst could only achieve $1m a % point for its 40% they would have approx. $18m in the bank (roughly 4-5 x the current MC)
For CMT sp, liquidity seems to be a big problem and Sams comments above regarding his reservations in parting with his hard earned are very relevant to current sentiment in this corner of the market.
Its certainly not where I had hoped we would be at the start of 2015 !