why???, page-4

Hi PoS

It's not very often to see directors wanting to dilute their own large holdings and also that of the larger stakeholders unless they are vendors themselves (which I can't see any evidence of). Unsure of Ochre though.

I keep asking myself 'why the difference between the $6.25mill AVX valued Allied and the (approx) $17mill BOD placed on them (ie assuming they used a price range of between 3-5c/BOD share - avg 4c)'

Given the Top20 hold approx 60% and the stock is fairly illiquid - Allied don't have much to lose (and a stack to gain) while BOD holders (incl directors) have a stack to lose (and not much to gain) - given the CURRENT available information only.

This aquisition will have much more merit when at least three new Allied 'friendly' sub holders hit the register imo. As approx 7.8 mill shares have traded since announcement and 6mill shares should get you 5% - we still have some way to go imo.

Given most of the Top 20 won't sell there controlling stake this early in the play (imo), accumulators will need to step up to approx 13-15c to get the next decent voting sized parcel and then to at least 20-25c for the next.

News will have to come out of BOD's cnr to generate volume for any decent accumulation to occur so 30-40c is not out of question imo.

Now add in the market opportunists with $$ who can see the play within the play. Allied/BOD friendlies will need to get this stock to minimum 15c (and quickly) to reduce risk of opportunists entering and also tempt the 5mill unlisted consultant opp holder to exercise and sell.

The higher BOD goes, the more incentive Allied/AVX have in ensuring the acquistion succeeds (obviously) and the more they will get behind BOD.

The BODOA's are the goldest of golden eggs imo and only a few here can see it!!! And thats purely from a voting point of view imo.

Top 12 would be picking up a few OA's as a voting hedge. If they sell, the acquistion gains more momentum - the higher the stock will go.

The OA's are about to be in very high demand imo

Cheers,
The Sparkler