A key factor in valuing AWC is understanding how long the...

A key factor in valuing AWC is understanding how long the current alumina (commodity) price tailwinds will last.

Prices spiked up to around $700/t in April 2018 (see AWC Presentation) after a forced curtailment of 3 million tonnes production capacity in Brazil, and have remained well above long-term averages since then.  When there was further bad news from Brazil in October, AWC share price spiked up as high as $3.20 in anticipation of further alumina shortage (although that bad news was quickly reversed).

Recent news about resumption of full production in Brazil, overcapacity in China and the pending start-up of a new refinery in the UAE don't seem to have dampened AWC's share price at all.  I would expect these all to put downward pressure on alumina (commodity) price over coming months.  That shouldn't affect AWC's upcoming dividend, but I would expect it to impact the dividend after that.  I suspect that AWC's recent announcement regarding Alcoa earnings figures has provided a timely distraction from the other issues.

I tend to agree with the UBS valuation; I've taken this as an exit opportunity.