I was playing with the National Electricity Marketing Co NEMCO reports of wholesale electricity in Australia today.
When the amount of electricity traded on the eastern states network is plotted against the cost of that electricity (in whole dollars per megawatt.hr) a bell curve appears.
The low cost tail of electricity is 2 c/kW.hr (a notional number used to prevent generators having to pay to put electricity into the grid when demand is very low and generators cannot be ramped down fast enough).
As more power is consumed price increases until a peak with most power being sold wholesale at 4-6c/kWhr.
The amount of power sold at ever increasing prices then falls in approximation of a normal curve until the NEMCO (artificial) price ceiling of 18.x c/kWhr is reached (real prices have gone up to $30,000/MWhr or 300c/kWhr!!! for very brief periods).
Reading back from very high prices and very low sales at the expensive end, the amount of power used rises very rapidly as wholesale price falls below 9c/kWhr.
Now, the average Australian household uses about 15-18kWhr/day, standing charge is 40c/day or about 2-3 cents/kWhr on average.
The targets for PV power to get into the mass electricity substitution game is therefore between 9c/kWhr (fed into the grid) or 11-12c/kWhr (taken from the grid without retailers costs and profit margin) or 20-30c/kWhr with retailers cost and profit
Where are we? the NREL Levelised Cost of Energy calculator http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/tech_lcoe.html says that for PV power to be at 9 c/kWhr - installed cost has to be around $1.20/Wp 11.5 c/kWhr - installed cost around $1.65/Wp 20-30 c/kWhr - installed cost around $3.10/Wp to $4.60/Wp
Listed 3kW quality residential PV systems (not cheapest no-name specials)are currently advertised at around $2.40/Wp. Real prices would be significantly less than the listed prices with a negotiated discount to close the sale.
Residential and commercial PV is already seriously less than retail mains power.
Come on State Governments, open up the networks to 5-100kW commercial rooftop systems!
GOE Price at posting:
5.6¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
