That's a pretty reasonable assessment but I would add that:
-Very few TWH shares have traded below 1c, so there's not much of a profit in selling AusCann @20c. There will likely be buy orders @20c on reopen, but if sellers are that keen to offload, I would assume they'll be soaked up at 20c, or even higher if there are a good number of buy orders above 20c - make your own assumptions. People might have paid 1.7c (34c post-consol) and need to sell at a loss to cover a credit card payment or whatever, so no reason to think they will only sell above 20c (as much as they won't want to). There will probably be some hopeful buy orders @1.9c and lower on reopening, but every dollar locked into those orders will be unavailable for other purchases, so they would have to fancy their chances of a lot of holders selling at a loss or a tiny profit to make that possible, which could well happen. If civil war breaks out in the US, NATO is disbanded and Russia moves in on Eastern Europe, anything goes..
-I am assuming that at least some of the 1.2-1.5c bidders either didn't know about the offer or made their own assumption that, like MXC's last CR, it would sell out in days and their money would take weeks to get back to them. I got in on that offer but didn't fancy my chances on this one until I phoned up and found this offer to be completely different, more transparent and much easier to access.
-Of course, the past performance of different companies is no indication of what will happen this time with this stock but, in my experience, if this is ever going to trade below its opening price it will probably be after a rise from opening. If I thought I could buy below 20c on opening, I wouldn't even consider buying this at all.
Newbies, DYOR and please feel free to ask for more opinions. There's no such thing as a stupid question. It is a purely speculative stock with no sales to date and some legislative hurdles to overcome, but I don't see any opposition to the medical cannabis industry in Australia, only a cautious, measured approach, which is understandable. It might take a bit of time, but AusCann's directors all have public profiles and reputations to uphold and their partnership with Canopy, a large and well established company with sales in the bank, gives me confidence in their long term success.
Email the company if you want to try to get in on the offer:
