I'm back, but its not as long as my last post, so no need to get a coffee.
Nic,
I enjoy reading what others post and always try to give back more, but I'm not sure how you come to the below view.
"It's a start up operation. In my opinion this company is riding on the back of Iluka"
Is it because Iluka's share price has 5x in the past 12 months and you are attributing IDM's rise today to them? or is it the former Iluka staff that now work there? is it the rise in the price of mineral sands?
Whatever it may be, this project was first drilled in 1989 by the current CEO - Phil Garratt. He has put his life into this project to see this day come and I'm sure he would have been incredibly proud publishing the chromite production photo in today's announcement.
I can say that I've been in this game for many years and I've seen many projects fail before ever producing. So let me be clear with my thoughts about IDM, it isn't a startup, it's a producer.
Just with these two parts of your post.
"This company has great forecasts. However, it's all about delivering on forecasts. Nobody really knows if they can do it until they do it.
I have no sentiment purely because I'm not sure if these guys are accurate in their forecasting."
In my last post I outlined the two biggest shareholders (Macquarie and Sentient), they have an appointed board member (John Mears). Just an assumption, but wouldn't that be the first question they would ask him before they outlayed $7m for the rights issues a month ago "can they meet their forecast?" I'm guessing both parties feel pretty comfortable with it.
"If their forecasts are accurate it's still very cheap."
That forecast is 14 months old and they've given us a hint that the prices are "positive", imagine if the price went up say 20% and they could produce more than the 70,000 tonnes....hmmmm.
So will they deliver? Can they deliver? Well, commissioning seems to have gone well and will more than likely be ramped up over a 2 month period. They have shown us a production picture, so we know the actual dry mill is operational, because it would be impossible to produce chromite from that mix of HM from a wet mill alone. They have also stated that shipments will commence this month.
I was actually impressed with this in today's announcement "positive pricing environment" which is quite possibly code for - it's better than alright, but we dont want to say (probably using the Iluka 2011 handbook in pricing communication)
But yeah, only time will tell, but with HM grades above 25% with a 4% cut off and a possible mine life over 40 years, I'm sure they've got a better than even chance.
Pep
IDM Price at posting:
25.8¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held