ALT 0.00% 0.5¢ analytica limited

RR1,Who knows??? We wish it wasn’t. But may I offer some of the...

  1. 223 Posts.
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    RR1,

    Who knows??? We wish it wasn’t. But may I offer some of the reasons that I believe that the share price is still languishing around the 2cent mark.

    There are too many people trading the stock - every time a good announcement hits - they sell and don’t let the share price take it’s course. Of course this happens with all stocks - and good on them, i hope they are making some money - but I’m hoping the long termers are accumulating at the lower levels and will eventually wipe out the ST traders.

    IMO the market is expecting another capital raising. I believe it is inevitable at this stage. The last announcement stated that they have placed materials orders so that they will have enough stock ready to sell in Brazil come July 2013 (assuming successful trials). Meaning, we won’t see any income until at least then. We have $609K left in the bank and generally use about $350K per quarter. Add to this the added cost of building up inventory prior to July. We have access to $400K loan from the good Dr M which may (but probably won’t) tie us over until meaningful sales kick in. I say that it probably won’t tie us over, mainly because everything with ALT seems to take a lot longer to achieve than they forecast. (Just look at the last announcement on the Brazilian LOI - they said product training would be conducted in Jan 2013. The very next announcement only a month later - the 4C - stated product training will be conducted in Mid Feb - just saying!) Hence, I’m betting a CR will be needed.

    The company has gone pretty much nowhere in the last 19 months. It was way back in July 2011 that the deal with Concord Repatriation Hospital was signed. Since then we have had no income from that agreement at all. Additionally we have not signed a single new hospital to take on the product. There are several reasons for this -supply problems etc, but I believe this is mainly owing to the fact that unbeknownst to us, the product was not very user friendly despite the cost savings and safety improvements. However, ALT have gone back to the drawing board and redesigned it. Now, this latest version is going to TAKE OVER THE WORLD!!!! but it is still being rolled out so we haven’t had any new hospitals sign on yet. Given the delays since the Concord agreement, shareholders are losing faith that the management can actually get the product out there. (eg - there is $80M worth of issued capital in this company. If you can’t get a device (it’s not even a drug for heaven sake) onto the market with $80M, then there is something wrong). But again, it’s been redesigned now and hopefully this Brazilian deal, should it eventuate, will lead us into a higher share price by the end of the year.

    Good luck to all holders.

    They are my thoughts on the matter. Take it as you will, I am no expert and am only posting to get my thoughts down. I encourage any feedback.
 
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