Why IMF interests me at these levels Pt II - potential upside, page-7

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denk12

7,445 Posts.

14/03/17

15:48

Post #: 23336619
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Originally posted by Portfolio ↑

Nice post Jimmy and good summary. My thinking is very much aligned to yours although i'm not convinced the upside isn't even better than you point out.

- Burford are already on a PE of 23.48x and this is against an "earnings" that includes the mark to market of their cases (different accounting treatment). Also a possible reason why Burford trades at a substantial premium / multiple of what IMF trades at is that their CEO Chris Bogart is a good promotor of the stock vs Andrew Sakers approach. The below video is a good example and well worth a watch as he explains the industry as it applies to IMF equally very well:

- Your point about the P/B at 1.65x is a good one as this is how I initially found IMF (my screen results below). The other thing I would point out is that book value (or Shareholders Equity) has been compounding really well over 5 and 10 years which tells me there are some attractive economics here.

View attachment 503370

- I like your lead indicator of $ of CV per $ of funds committed. I didn't think to do that and its good analysis provided they keep their "probability of success" constant;

- Where do you get the $50m net cash figure for 2020 in your model? I would argue that that figure will be many multiples of $50m. Alternatively I would say that your 2020 model is the terminal value for the model and should be added to the estimate of the cash spun out of the current book before 2020 (which is not immaterial in fact makes up most of my valuation).

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Portfolio

I do like your screen shot.

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Did either of you, Jimmy_C or Portfolio get a chance to look at my DCF / EVA analysis on the 3 March 2017? ►►► Here https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/23067935/single

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IMF Price at posting: $1.78 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Why IMF interests me at these levels Pt II - potential upside, page-7

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