why i think a deal will happen, page-10

It would seem reasonably probable now that the SEHK will uphold it's previous decision, thus triggering a defeating condition for the Dingyi takeover (as I understand it).

This will free Dingyi from having to pay a 200% premium (at current market prices) to acquire ELM, which would now seem unreasonable in the current Potash environment. This is Dingyi's get-out-of-jail card.

That leaves ELM with a good Potash deposit, quarterly convertible note repayments to Dingyi at 7% (or converted by Dingyi to shares at 34c), and still requiring $1.6 billion (or thereabouts) for development.

Prudent financial management is in order, as is patience while waiting for the next global Potash up-cycle. They'll probably make the convertible notes repayments to Dingyi with Dingyi's loan, or via a capital raising (if Dingyi elect for cash).

Perhaps another Chinese "shell" will pick up where Dingyi left off. Perhaps Dingyi will take a punt with a lower offer. The Chinese love playing these war games over many years... on and on... They did the same with Sundance.

Dingyi are slowly choking ELM, backing them into a corner.

The Art of (Business) War.

I may have interpreted some of this information wrongly, feel free to correct.

Gw