Why GLN could be one of the best baggers on the ASX IMO., page-104

Ok,

in simple terms:
GXY
$820mill MC  
-$41mill in cash
-$300mill POSCO (have discounted due to $ not being in the bank, but the market will have valued alot of this, should be be $400mill AU)
-$50 mill James bay (guess on my part, but it is a well advanced project so play around with the numbers)
So, without Mt Catalin + SDV that leaves us at:
$429mill MC
Lets say the Mt Catalin project is worth: 
$300mill given its production and profitability that would be very conservative plus when you include the plant asset valuation aswell. Some bean counter could calculate a NPV is they so wish....

So given the above that would value SDV at $129mill...

Play around with the numbers give/take, still at best values SDV at max $200mill IMO probably less, the key variable is how the market is valuing the POSCO cash, given the current status, its a 95%+ cert, so the GXY MC will not jump by $400mill once the money comes through. The value of Mt Catalin is very low too as the plant is probaly worth $100mill

No doubt the cheer squad will pick this apart, but there is no hiding from the fact that based on GXY's curreny MC, GLN at JORC in the current market conditions would be worth sub $200mill. Still a ~3 bagger from here fully diluted (including performance shares).

So the speculation for anything more on GLN is the following:

1. A longer term hold to realsie full value in production
2. Lithium market sentiment change

Have a good weekend