I posted this earlier on MAH site and have added to it since. Am...

I posted this earlier on MAH site and have added to it since. Am hoping to encourage some HC interest in DOW and UGL. Based on my findings i bought into DOW today.
M.
Yesterday did some figures to compare the 4 companies i anticipate will benefit most from infrastructure boom in 2009-2011. It is the only sector where spending (in this case by govt) will increase. The SP used were at before open on Monday 29/12/08.

MAH LEI UGL DOW
SP 0.34 25.00 7.83 3.65
Mkt Cap 186m 7449m 1287m 1192m
PE08 3.86 11.4 9.6 7.6
Divs 08 5.5c 145c 58c 25.5c(ufr)
F.cast divs 09 5.5c 167c 68c 31c(pfr)
divs 09 yield 16% 6.7% 8.5% 8.5%
Interest cover 5.8 6.7 7.2 4.2
Debt to equity 32% 104% 48% 49%
Rev 08 1.24B 14.5B 3.5B 5.56B
Rev 09 1.45B 16.7B 3.9B 6.12B
09 rev increase 16% 15% 11% 11%
Rev/mkt cap 08 6.7x 1.95x 2.72x 4.64x
Rev/mkt cap 09 7.8x 2.24x 3.03x 5.13x


What the table shows is that MAH has by far the highest multiple of rev versus mkt cap. LEI is the lowest multiple.
Hence, by my reckoning MAH has the most safety in the SP with LEI requiring much higher margins to meet earnings forecast. In addition LEI has by far highest debt:equity %. All 4 companies have finance/borrowings sorted and well covered.

UGL probably has the safest revenue stream and least likely to lose orders/earnings. Also has lowest debt ratio. For me the best buys (in order of best-worst) is: MAH DOW UGL with LEI too high a risk. I own shares in all 4 companies. i intend to sell down my exposure to LEI and concentrate on the other 3 esp MAH and DOW.