RMS 1.54% $1.98 ramelius resources limited

Where's The Pullback, page-81

  1. 11,185 Posts.
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    With a MC of ~$563 million today and cash and gold at Dec 2018 of ~$110 million you have an EV of about $453 million.

    RMS made a profit of $4.8 million in the 6 months to Dec 2018.

    Based on this level of profitabilty it would take 47 years of operating its mines to return profits equal to its share price (EV) assuming they had 47 years of mine reserves.

    Even if they impoved profitabilty by a factor of 4 it would still take close to 12 years to return their current EV in profits.

    Based on current ore reserves of 0.698Moz (excluding Marda and Tampia) and 2019 production guidance of about 200koz that is a mine life of 3.5 years, well short of 47 years (current reality) or 12 years (assuming profitabilty can quadruple).

    Add in the 485kozs of ore reserves at Tampia and mine life goes out to 6 years.

    RMS annual profitabilty would need to increase 8 fold from the current $9.6 million/annum (implied by the half yearly result) to a consistent $77 million annually to have any hope of returning its current EV in profits with the reserves it has and that is with 100% reserve depletion. You know its costs money to maintian reserves and you need some decent potential in the ground to keep adding 200kozs of reserves year on year.

    Another company mentioned on this thread have 14 years of reserves, plenty enough to see its current EV returned in profits based on feasibilty plus some.

    You are putting a lot of faith in plans based on no published feasibilty and you would need to hold the stock for 47 years based on current profitabilty to see your 86.5 cents returned in profits. Better start looking harder for more reserves to fill the mines for the next 47 years then.

    I don't like to overlook the basic facts, ie investing 101 that is. Esh
    Last edited by eshmun: 21/03/19
 
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