$4, looks spot on to me, although I agree you're overly optimistic with the POS and the ball mill down time.
But the debt repayment isn't specifically due at any time. The bank could call it in tomorrow. They have given CCU until 21/2 to come up with proposals, there's nothing too sinister about that in my experience - BUT (and it's a big BUTT) they will need more money.
They've deferred the payments due until 21/2, I know, but they can defer again, just as they had already deferred from 31/12/13.
It would help a lot if the POS was moving in the right direction.
CCU Price at posting:
10.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held