Scarin, I more look at what the value is based on the...

Scarin, I more look at what the value is based on the fundamentals but I think that view also has to apply a discount factor applied due to current market sentiment and lack of confidence due to no detail news on future development.

With respect to value:

1/ On the fundamentals I believe the Net Assets in the Dec13 Half Yearly will be somewhere around $18.5m. That is largely based on June 13 accounts plus additional cash less amortisation, it also includes an FX revalustion on US assets ( USD 0.944 Jun.13, 0.898 Dec.13) If correct net assets would support a SP of 0.025

2/ On production we are currently producing by my calc's at approximately 203 boed. At $90k per boed we get $18.3m which would support a SP of 0.024

3/ On cashflow I believe our operations (rcpts less production cost less admin) are cash positive $405k per month which is $4.9m per year. Using 3 times cash multiplier that gives $14.6m which would support SP 0.019

These numbers are arbitrary really but are not dependant on news. We can use same methodology and compare to peers as a sanity check. Others may have a different view but unfortunately those metrics are not currently being shared for us all to get a more balanced view.

Imo the largest risk for us is the low liquidity, until there is consistent volume it is possible the SP will stay where it is however small sells can move SP lower where the buyers are patiently waiting. Top 20 has been relatively stable for a few years, number of Shareholders is lower but they have on average larger holdings than last year and most likely have enough parked here for the time being until clearer picture can be seen.

Therefore personal cash management is more important to me than the SP. If we have to sell it is currently likely to be at lower levels despite the fundamentals. A contrarian view could argue on opportunity however we have been saying that for years now so all should be careful in considering all possibilities.

I hope this is useful but stress it is only my opinion and you should always check everything for yourself before forming your opinion. I personally don't care about the sp, I am happy to be a part business owner which is my interest, I see a good turnaround story unfolding and enjoy the research - based on that am comfortable where I am at but that position only reflects my personal choice and may be wrong. Therefore I may be biased, stupid or naive:) & I can live with that.

Good luck to all and sorry about the war & peace novel
Bw