Hi there Goodbrad My posts about Ebola go back to before anyone...

Hi there Goodbrad

My posts about Ebola go back to before anyone around here was interested.  My view swings from  less negative  to negative to "wait and see" depending on what the data suggests.

Sadly my outlook is shifting to negative again because of an analysis by Dr Peter Jahring.  Peter Jahring is a key Ebola Researcher who has previously identified various strains of the virus and is probably worth a hundred or so other scientific "opinions" on this topic. He is not saying that the world will come to an end.  He is saying that there IS significant a increase  the virus load in affected people. This means that the current strain of the virus is more contagious than previous strains.

The litmus paper in my uninformed opinion remains Nigeria.

And Goodbrad. Picture yourself in a crowded hot slum of thousands,  no sewerage,  a highly contaminated water supply and little in the way of any other hygiene. Of course the damned infection risk (the R factor)will  higher in in these circumstances.  Where the R factor remains LESS THAN ONE infection will remain sporadic.  Where the R factor is GREATER THAN ONE the infection will become an epidemic.  Environment has a lot to do with the R factor but it is not the only factor at play.  So in basic terms WHEN I see evidence of an high R factor in Nigeria I will (again) panic.

As an aside its good  to see that Australia is going to support PNG with that country's planned  Ebola response.


cheers