Thanks leasx. Your observations about solar are correct. Solar...

Thanks leasx.

Your observations about solar are correct. Solar generation is dispersed, highly predictable and very roughly matches peak demand - the air conditioners go on when the sun shines the hardest. An easy market to game, as those with roof panels will discover in coming years when their escape from the grid is flipped into provider status. (rooftop solar + batteries is a useful investment, though the gains will be less than many anticipate as grid intermediaries will capture much of the revenues; the key beneficiaries will be installers)

The profile of wind is quite different. Windfarms are held by a handful of rational players. They generate with the weather. New projects are tightly curtailed as locals don't like ugly turbines ruining their views of the cow paddocks. Adding a battery to a windfarm would end the frequency oscillation discount that costs IFN about $6m a year, which could go straight to the capital cost of batteries. A battery turns a windfarm from a price-taker to a price-maker as it can despatch to its battery instead of the grid if it prefers. Also, when a windfarm produces more then contracted the current can go to storage rather than be gifted to the grid. There would be another ~$6m a year there too.

On the question of IFN's lows, I see 56c or 57c as possible lows and useful entry points. IFN has indicated it expects to complete refinancing by 30 March, in ten days time. This will enable fresh investment in shovel-ready Cherry Tree and possibly batteries. Meanwhile, Bodangora begins producing in 3Q18, adding 25% to IFN's generation, which I don't see reflected in the share price and is only a few short months away.

I am very bullish IFN. If it isn't vigorously repriced in the immediate future, y'all can have a good laugh at my expense.

Ash