IFN has been in an overall downward trend since June 2016, when it peaked at $1.20. Since then the stock has halved. Many investors would have likely invested across this time-frame, thinking that the stock has bottomed out, only to catch a falling knife.
At what level will the stock find support? What catalysts will turn the fortunes of the stock price, from a bearish to a bullish trend?
IFN believes that a move to multiple channels will result in a lower level of earnings volatility and inherent business risk. With this strategic shift IFN will be less of a pure infrastructure play and more of an energy market participant. Refinancing also remains a potential catalyst.
In FY17, IFN delivered EBITDA of $139mn and underlying NPAT of $21mn. Infigen experienced an impressive FY17 and yet the stock price continued to fall. Ultimately, the falling price may come down to the fact that long “run of plant” contracts no longer preserve or create value of themselves and more dynamic players like IFN need to consider alternative channels to market.
Yet, with over 1,000MW of prospective developments in its pipeline, organic growth remains a very large part of IFN’s value proposition.
What ALL most likely agree on, is that IFN is a good long term hold. 10 years from now, the company will have benefited from the inevitable shift of society to renewables.
BUT, for potential shareholders like myself, in the interests of avoiding a falling knife - where, what price and when will IFN find it's bottom...
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