Even though I recently sold out, I thought I would still give my...

Even though I recently sold out, I thought I would still give my 2c worth. No pun intended towards the expected divvy. After being a long term holder and being heavily underwater for a long time when the SP crashed and then being overweight when I averaged down. When it hit 20c I made some return and when added to recent Divvys over the past few years wasnt a bad return. Then when it hit 23.5 decided to sell out completely for the following reasons:

1. I expect final divvy to be 1c as the company will hold back funds for Mill upgrade. Until that is resolved they wont go out of thier way to increase SP. They simply dont care about short term SP this company is run by the Chinese from top to bottom.

2. If they only declare a 1c divvy at 2c per year it has a great chance in my opinion of causing the SP to be pushed back towards 20c rather than upwards to 30c just weighing risk of downside vs upside.

3. By the time the Mill upgrade is complete I dont think I/O prices will still be high so there is a chance they will go conservative again on divvys and tighten the belts and conserve high cash balance.

4. With Chinese controlled board and management GRR will never have comparable EV to other Australian companies as the institutional investors dont trust them and tend to steer clear. Mom and Dad investors wont drive a SP so GRR is always under valued. Trick is to figure out when the peaks and troughs are because this SP fluctuates heavily and you can make more money trading the swings than you can waiting on Divvys. Thats a painful lesson I learned from Auto over the past few years.

Good luck to those that are long term holders, I missed the chance to sell out before and wont miss it again, happy with my decision and while I certainly left some money on the table you cant kick yourself for taking profits occasionally. I hope they pay a 2c divvy for holders but thought I would give my input on where i thought it might head and my view on the upside / downside risk.