Whats Wrong, page-27

- all the non aud gold producers have been in a downtrend for past 18 months - that a function of market maker algos - nothing to do with inherent value.  its only 'pure' aud exposures that have been in uptrend. thats a function of usd strength

- add to that the developer or sovereign risk stories have then been v soggy - ogc, aqg, rsg etc

- now as non aud goldies appear to possibly be breaking into uptrend - you get uplift based on inherent discount and outlook. aqg got sold down v hard because it was such a lean cashflow long duration capex spend - so its been priced down much harder on a relative basis than rsg

- now that the trend is moving up - aqg should rise faster in the short term - according to my numbers aqg is on ev/gross margin of 5.1x - rsg on 5.5x.  (ie roughly 10% cheaper and lower risk)  

lt i recall aqg also had some amazing leverage from growth in production - but i dont have it modelled

- people unaware of broad trends and technicals focus  on specific stocks - so they complain when sp is falling not rising

but it all appears pretty logical to this point to me