patcox - there are some real flaws in your argument. You say...

patcox - there are some real flaws in your argument. You say that if people were following RM's method properly, they should have already sold their holding in MCE based on intrinsic value falling over the next few years. But in one of RM's blog posts from a few months ago, this reduced future IV was still well above the share price at that time. If the method is to sell when future IV is tipped to decrease (regardless of the big margin of safety at the time) then why would you buy the stock in the first place?

This is further backed up by the fact that Roger still held MCE at least up until the latest results announcement and even participated in the capital raising at $8.50