just posted on BUY, just posting on all other pep 11 stocks as well
Well im very surprised that no one has crunched any figures as yet about a possible $1b investment into PEP11. yes i know its not directly with BUY, but the way i see it this is just as good for BUY as it is everyone else.
SO the media is toting a $1b investment for a 25% stake in Advent. Thats right ADVENT not a farmin for 25% of PEP 11, just a 25% stake in Advent. Not taking into account for anything else Advent have on their books, just using PEP 11 alone for this.
So with the possible investment of $1b for the 25% stake in Advent i came up with the flowing spreadsheet.
*Note i havent used any figures of indirect exposure to PEP 11 for MMR and GBA and BPH via their holdings of each other, too confusing for me too work out today.
*Note i havent used any new figures of BPH reference the capital consolidation.
PEP 11 split up once well has been drilled.
Advent 85% Bounty 15%
I have used the Advent break down as of the last investment presentation on MMR 22/10/10 page 4
MMR - 44.9% BPH - 27.75% (Pending BPH attaining necessary approvals and conditions as per BPH ASX announcement 11 October 2010) GBA - 7.69% Talbot - 9.57% others - 10.1%
So now lets look at the spreadsheet.
You will note that the perceived value for PEP 11 is $4,705,882,353, and not just $4b, this is because the Indians want a 25% stake of the 85% of PEP 11.
Which leaves if the perceived value for each company after the $1b investment compared to their current MC gives a bagger of the following.
Stock Bagger BUY 10.20 MMR 13.72 BPH 26.80 GBA 20.41
As i hold BUY any investment in Advent of $1billon will definitely have a very positive effect on BUY share price, may not be as great as compared to the others but still a 10 bagger none the less.
*Note the above figures will not be 100% as i havent taken into account any indirect exposure of PEP11 via GBA, MMR, BPH holdings of each other.
*Note BPH figures will more than likely change due to current consolidation going on.
*Note all shares outstanding are not fully diluted including options.
Enjoy our run as the fun is just about to begin.
Keep on Buying
Harry out
GBA Price at posting:
40.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
