Just rang the company and spoke to the investor relations gal....

Just rang the company and spoke to the investor relations gal. Very obliging and helpful.
She said that the reason for the decline may be attributed to a report from Wilson HTM.
I haven't read it but read something about it in the newspaper.
....Wilson HTM analyst David Arter said the broking house has forecast a 16.6 per cent lift in earnings to $42.7 million this year.

Mr Arter said the forecast growth represented a recovery on the 2007 result that was depressed by the extreme weather events.

"The message was that they remain acquisitive and there are still good opportunities for growth, both organic and acquisitional growth," he said.

I just rang Wilson HTM to get the report and they are sending it to me so I will keep you up to date as information comes to hand.

I thought what the newspaper had to say was fairly positive. You'd think a lift in earnings of 16.6% to $42.7 would be fairly positive and the prediction seems pretty right.

In 06 the company produced a profit of around $33 m which is about 13% on $252 m of revenue.
In 07 the company produced a return of 10% or $36 m due to weather, maintenance to meet government standards and a supply shortage of cranes.
Apparently maintenance takes crains off the road and adds to costs and this is supposed to continue on till February '08. After that things will be back to normal.
In year '08 the company then is expecting about 13% on revenue of around $350 same as last year which is about $45 m.

Wilson HTM has the figure of $42 m

So I'd say that anything around the $45 m would be about right.

What is suprising is that where the average consensus target fot the company is around $3.50, wilson HTM is ony $2.80

$2.80 is not great but it is not terrible. If you bought in at 2.38 you'd be getting a return of 17% on your money I suppose. But having said that it is way below the average of the other analysts which is about $3.50. Knock out UBS and Deutche and you have $3.20

Macquarie $3.34
ABN Amro $3.20
Citi $3.08
UBS $4.20
Deutche $4.00
Wilson HTM $2.80

I'd say then to be on the safe side go Macquarie, ABN Amro, Citi and Wilson and you'd get average target price of $3.10 or a return of 30% at todays price of $2.38