re: what...no one reporting back - magoo Hi magoo,Your post had...

re: what...no one reporting back - magoo Hi magoo,

Your post had more interesting information in it and an interesting method to forecast future revenues.

It may be a credible method but in the event that you would be interested in how I arrived at a revenue figure for next quarter, allow me to share the following with you, which with Peter Dykes help, I extrapilated from past quarterly reports and asx announcements...

In 2004, the GalaVu installed base earned $5.2m per annum (Aussie / Canadian dollars are close to 1:1). As a result, we can assume that they will deliver approx $1.3m this current quarter.

The Q2 Quarterly Report (see Note 8) shows that the IHG/Verizon rooms (for Nov and Dec) generated revenue of $396K (includes $12K for Singapore). As a result, we could assume IHG to contribute $600K in the current quarter. However, earlier this year the number of IHG installations increased from 8 to 9 with the inclusion of the IHG Miami so the figure may be closer to $700,000+.

This is good business with a very high profit margin.

Finally, by stripping out the revenue from the telecom business from the Q2 Quarterly, it appears that ETC earns approx $1m per quarter from the Australian installations.

As you state, ETC has and is expanding it installed base in AUs and NZ so this figure could be a tad higher in the next quarterly.

I tried to construct a Discounted Cashflow spreadsheet for ETC but, one of the biggest difficulties I hit was that certain hotels (premium sites) can generate significant more revenue than the average.

For example, 3 of the IHG make up a significant part of the $396,000 mentioned above. So, it isn't very helpful to talk in terms of average run rate per room because, the rates vary widely within hotels groups and between hotel groups.

I suspect the method I employed above may get our forecast closer to the actuals.