JMB 0.00% 6.0¢ jumbuck entertainment limited

Never underestimate how "cheap" (or "expensive") a share can...

  1. 1,497 Posts.
    Never underestimate how "cheap" (or "expensive") a share can become.

    $7m in the bank is good. But you can't force them to distribute it.

    In one case, I held a company (not JMB) for several years because they had cash in bank close to market cap, plus substantial revenues. I watched this company invest the cash and then depreciate the resulting tech assets over a rate of 3 years...

    ... in that case, after selling out and watching for those 3 years, I was eventually able to buy in (at a third of the original price) when it became apparent that the company would start to book profits from their investments, but it was never a "given" that they would.

    Bottom can always be further away than you can believe possible. The bottom of the barrel share price in these situations is usually set by one of the following occurring:

    1. The company is able to pay a double digit % dividend and there is no reason to suggest that will be cut. (JMB current yield is 6.25% and unlikely to increase dividend in coming year)

    2. The company is a potential takeover - this requires that there is no significant blocking stake. (JMB doesn't appear to have a blocking stake, so would be worth considering as a possible takeover target. Perhaps getting close to a suitable level, but usually a large buyer taking an initial stake will show up on the chart - look for increased volume and a tick up in price).

    3. The company has market cap below the value of liquid assets-total liabilities. This is a rather rare situation and almost always a viable buy provided any post-accounting date changes have been considered.(JMB would need to be at market cap of below $7m or 14cps for this to apply)

    4. The company produces either a result or forecast that clearly implies an increase in profits/cashflow in the coming 12 month period. (JMB implying a decline)

    So at the moment, it's only ticking boxes as a potential takeover target - I'd not invest on that alone as it is a random event with insufficient certainty. Wait for a chart signalling possible corporate action OR a sufficiently depressed share price OR an announcement signalling improved outlook. Not to say you can't win on a trade without those, but those things will certainly de-risk it.
 
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Currently unlisted public company.

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