JID I'm not saying you are wrong but "I have a friend who has a...

JID

I'm not saying you are wrong but "I have a friend who has a friend who's brother......" Really!!!!

The problem is for everyone who trots out a story like this there is a counter story or plausible counter-factual that says exactly the opposite.

The inalienable fact is that oil demand per day is around 92 million and production is at 93 million.

Daily oil demand has been going up around 1 million bbls per day/year and will continue to do so for some time. So this surplus will reverse because Governments around the world need growth. Growth = demand. I don't think the US economy is growing as well as the numbers are suggesting because of the quality of jobs they are creating. It really is a selfish society on the whole and hell bent on large profits all the time. My point - stimulus will continue to fuel the economies (growth) around the world. That will unfortunately mean more boom/bust cycles to come.  

There have been oil shocks like this over the past 20 -30 years and oil has always managed to come back.

Usually the Saudis are the ones with their hands on the levers are are therefore in control. There is no reason to think otherwise now.

If there wasn't cheap money would there be a US oil boom - hardly and as I said cheap money for capex and margin lending was never going to end well.

There is probably more reasons to talk about what is really going on here eg Russia sanctions, Saudi market share, etc etc but that would just add to the noise.

But one other concern is that if all the experts out there - and there were a lot of them - got caught out by this spectacular decrease in the POO why is it we think that Hot Copper posters have all the answers. I didn't see any forecasts or predictions here on HC or in the media that this was going to happen especially on this scale and magnitude.

What I did see is the posting traffic suddenly increase as all the 'post oil rout experts' have come out and started pointing fingers with all their intelligent after the fact commentary and expert opinions. My aren't we clever. I'm not saying they're wrong or shouldn't post just saying it's interesting to watch.

The fact is that there is too much noise out there to make heads or tails out of this. Yes it is time to look at balance sheets and yes, not to state the bleeding obvious, a fall like we have witnessed is going to affect the profitability of every company in the oil industry - daaaahhh. The issue here now is survivability and any good company management, and I include DLS in this, would have done a stress test for such a shock.

One thing for sure - this is a buying opportunity and my money is on greed to kick in and an engineering of the oil price to go back up just like it was engineered to fall.

All the best to all holders.

Cheers
BW
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And then is heard no more. It is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury
Signifying nothing.