Whilst I have titled this thread "What I expect to see in the Quarterly Report" I acknowledge "expect" could be read as "hope". However, if management genuinely want to restore investor confidence, I hope they read this and respond to my expectations, as well as what ever anyone else add's to this list of what management could say to restore their confidence. Whilst the report will obviously set out what management has achieved over the last three months, but given that might not take too long, hopefully there will be sometime for them to write about these matters:
1. A clear, no BS explanation of where North Portia is up to, when the next payment can be expected, what aspects of the payment being received then are within HAV's control, what is outside of HAV's control and anything that can be done to mitigate the risk of delays.
2. A clear, no BS explanation of where Kalkaroo PFS is up to, when the next payment can be expected, what aspects of the PFS being completed by this date are within HAV's control, what is outside of HAV's control and anything that can be done to mitigate the risk of delays.
3. SIMEC have extended due diligence for another two months. Perhaps a brief summary of what has been completed so far. But more importantly, what work is expected to be completed during the two month extension period (are there any outstanding drill results to come, is there more drilling going on or is it just lab testing of past samples).
4. We all know we need cash before the end of the year. North Portia payments if successful might pay out the debt, but then we are back to running on empty. A capital raising at these prices is ridiculous. The share price is not going to increase until investors can see a clear path to a return. Existing shareholders would lose more from dilution by raising capital at the current price than we would by selling an asset at less than what we would hope to receive. Once we have the cash from North Portia, HAV will not have any income that could be used to make repayments on a loan. Therefore, financiers are unlikely to lend and any borrowing by HAV is likely to be riskier than the current borrowing structure. Therefore, it seems the only option left open to me is to sell something. If management disagree, then what is their plan to get cash by the end of the year. If they can get shareholders on board with their plan and it doesn't involve a capital raising, then perhaps the share price will pick up. At the moment, why buy at the current price when a capital raising is possible within the next year and prices could be lower.
If management agree that an asset sale is the best plan, what will it be and what is the plan to market that asset. Options are Kalkaroo (most obvious choice but need that PFS completed), Grants (need to be willing to accept less than hoped because resource is not defined, regardless of what Giles thinks he can prove, we don't have the cash to prove it - is management relying on SIMEC only or have they started to line up others which would also put pressure on SIMEC), Jupiter (cash payment and JV partner to fund drilling to earn percentages - but haven't we been looking for that partner for the last year?), Mutooroo (unlikely to get much for this based on status). HAV should have a Plan A and a Plan B as putting all their eggs in one basket is too risky when there is no good alternative.
Whilst I don't expect this in the quarterly, HAV should be aware that there will be scrutiny over the cash position at the end of January, whether their cash spend in the last three months was consistent with the budget for that quarter (perhaps an explanation of any differences) and importantly the cash forecast for the next quarter. The forecast I think will be closely watched and any deviations from that will need future explanation.
And whatever management say they are going to do, they need to do it.
HAV Price at posting:
15.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)
