what has this thing really got., page-4

BLURB...can't be bothered playing ATM.....

So�why is it being manipulated so?

At multiple levels, we have clear incentive to keep her in a holding pattern...

1. The single most dominating force is clearly the shape of the register...it is one of the most vulnerable I have seen to uninformed reactive "noise". This is typical of many transitional plays which rely so heavily on the retail sector in the early days, before shifting to the stability of an insto/fund focussed register as their progress attracts the bigger money.

2. The goal posts shifted dramatically after the initial London based funds expressed interest in the stock. Clearly they had missed the boat but still wanted in...and I suspect were a little "unsatisfied" with Smyth's "no time like the present" recommendation regarding taking a placement. I feel they have been partly responsible for ensuring future placements were considerably cheaper.

3. The company has been equally responsible for creating a vulnerable register, mostly due to the nature of written communications to the market and need for a degree of secrecy in relation to negotiated specifics. This is "Angola centric"...but not due to corruption or graft as many like to suggest...no, it is more to do with the nature of what is in store for CVI.

4. The wider market jitters have not helped any...but whilst equal effecting all stocks across the board, none the less it is adding to the activities in CVI.

5. Finally, we have the "t4p factor"�and no, I am not big noting myself here�lol. I am absolutely convinced there are those trolling the threads looking for stock being well covered with informative detail...they must be stocks with excellent stories, undervalued and capable of rising on their own steam when left un molested. This is not about me by the way...by "t4p factor" I am simply referring to any stock, heavily discussed on the forums with genuine and informative comment, specifically with heavy trading volumes and a strong junior retail following. I have learned the hard way, the best way to make money is to not post on my stocks...lol...sad but true, which is why I no longer post on my other investments.

The answer of course is not to post on anything...but where is the fun in that?

The important issue here, which I think most of those arguing against the stock simply miss, is that CVI is my preferred spec investment.

Investment...not trader.

Most traders discuss the importance of how many are held by the top 20, who they are, how long they have been on the register...etc, etc�and above all else, their perceived stability.

As a top 20 holder I am not inclined to "trade" my position...simple...I would have thought this would be viewed favourably by "traders"...instead, it appears to have become the focus for ridicule, with accusations of "falling in love with the stock"...or for not selling when one should have.

According to these self appointed gun traders, all top20 holders, in any stock that ever happens to fall, must be stupid, or "in love with their stocks"...or worse, incapable of listening to the other side?

Something of a market dichotomy...don't you think?

"The defence of our own opinions is a strong urge with CVI. Therefore, I conclude that in the face of the unreliability of your own and also crowd opinions, why don't many of you make the strenuous effort to see the opposite side - to examine the facts and evidence and if warranted, act in the opposite way.

You assume this has not taken place?

When I research stocks, I look at all sides...in fact, I often take the view of the negative, specifically looking for reasons against...a bit like turning charts upside down to gauge unbiased interpretations. I fear you assume if one adopts a view he has not looked at all others prior?

One of the things I find quite a challenge is to maintain clear and focussed thought in the face of considerable "noise"...noise often designed to break the resolve of those who have arrived at specific views.

As "traders", we must maintain flexibility of thought, then be prepared to act on them in micro timeframes...but as an "investors", whilst we need to maintain the same flexibility of thought, we must apply a different level of reactive measure, typically commensurate with the macro moves from a much bigger picture.

This is my approach with CVI.

The macro story, which is clearly a fundamentally specific measure, is very much intact according to my assessments...as such, the "investment" in CVI is still as valid now at 17c...as it was at 6c...and as it was at 39c...and as it will be at 50c.

The trader noise is just that...and whilst at any other time I might be in the thick of it, for me the benefits of holding CVI with a longer term view outweighs the benefits of small-time trading.

Besides, you could not be guaranteed getting in and out with large lines if and when you please...and not risk a near terminal opportunity loss should CVI finally land one of the deals currently on the table.

Frankly�do the maths�the trading in CVI is really small time.

I have specific trading funds currently doing the rounds in CNP, ABS, AFG, MEO, BRM, AZA, FDL...and several others. These are high volume, high volatility, market reactive stocks that are a traders dream. They facilitate the movement of large lines in and out, either intra-day or intra-week, with a high degree of safety...in both directions.

With stocks like these available to all, I really do wonder why people would even bother targeting CVI...unless of course they are small time and need the scalps of small fry junior retail to survive...or of course, they are CVI centric in that they have direct access to management, and can therefore run the stock within the added safety of inside info.

Any other "groups" targeting CVI, in my mind would be relatively small time, perhaps 3-5 traders working in tandem (a mini boiler room so to speak), with no more than a mill between them, which would be enough to work a stock like CVI between technical ranges given its vulnerability to sentiment driven reaction.

Probably don't have what it takes to line up against the big boys in stocks like ABS and AFG?

Such a group might target popular threads, which would be a fair measure of heavily retail weighted registers.