What happens if Lynas closes..., page-26

"Since it is quite apparent that fear is driving the shareprice and since that fear is that Malaysia will shut Lynas down," I do not find this obvious at all. I have been saying since May that this will turn out fine. You may wish it is fear, is that true? How about some traditional Metrics like EPS. Last night ND dropped 5 RMB / KG. That is a two day drop of 9 RMB. 3% I plot weekly prices on the REO that Lynas sells. Looking back 2 years I cannot find a one week drop this large. Lynas has been commanding a Large PE as an aggressive Growth company and I believe if you look at the future a year or two out this is deserved. Unfortunately the WW economy is slowing down Italy is officially in recession. Germany is at the edge, Brittan and France are not far off. One of the first things that happens in a major correction or recession is the PE of aggressive growth stock falls. So double whammy against Lynas falling profits falling PE from worldwide condition in general.

Glad to see you are finally acknowledging moving will be very difficult. I actually think with JARE support it is possible. The question for current stock holders is not if they can move but if their current stock will be worth anything after it happens? There will be tremendous dilution and then big reverse splits. Will the company have to issue a new class of stock making current shares worthless? The money required to relocate will need to be raised and that will hurt current stock holders. I have read many scenarios on this board about how they could move some look like they would work. Nowhere have I seen a proposal that shows how to raise Cash without diluting current stock holders allot. Be it loans or selling stock raising cash lowers stock price. If they close lamps that is a huge loss on the books turning earnings negative also lowers stock price. They do not separate Mt weld from Lamp in note 12 of H1 report but plants are about 500M they what would a 400M write off do to stock price?

I do not think this will happen I firmly believe Malaysia will become a non-issue. I just find this talk of moving ridiculous! If I thought it even had a 5% chance of happening I would be selling the very few shares I bought recently, in spite of loss. I think buying was a mistake I paid too much attention to Lynas and not enough attention to WW economy.