I've made this point before. If you threaten any resource it's...

I've made this point before. If you threaten any resource it's price spikes. Trumpy-wumpy suggests Iran is bad and oil prices spike. DRC has an environmental issue and cobalt skyrockets. Your example of iron ore above.

Where is the NdPr spike on a Lynas shutdown?

On the one hand the SP has been crushed on threats of closure, but on the other NdPr prices are unmoved or falling.

What I think this indicates is that the SP is manipulated down by shorts with the Malaysia news used effect this. But markets in general see little risk on future supply so prices hold. To be fair Lynas results were badly affected by the shutdown in December, but the loss was really only additional supply of NdPr which wouldn't have affected demand (it had already been met).

I agree with Pennie and others who have said that the matter was decided the moment Japan got involved. The question is not whether Yeo will cave, but how and when and what face can she save.

Lynas will be looking to invest with NEXT NEXT. But I'd expect it won't be concentrated in Malaysia. Announcements on Lynas expansion goals are due, they won't be sitting on their hands now that NEXT is more or less finished.