what happened, page-8

FWD issues are structural:

* The business has been geared to manufacture accomodation units for the mining industry - the big camps are inevitibly iron ore and coal related - the expansion phase for both of these commodities is over in this cycle (at least a 5 year phase until Japan or someone else picks up)
* Accomodation utilisation and rates in the Pilbara are falling rapidly as Oil & Gas construction tapers off - workers are leaving Gorgon project and Pluto projects - without a big ticket onshore development such as Browse to soak them up
* Share price has been held up by dividend yiled - last year they had to issue debt to maintain the dividend - I doubt they will be able to sustain the same dividend in the future
* Caravan sales are not coming back - majority of the costs are in AUD so it was not a FX problem anyway - consumer sentiment is weak and people are preferring to pay of their home loan, not spend $150k on a new caravan

I think FWD will settle around the $5 mark ... it will not be distasterous collapse but it is clearly one of the few remaining mining services stocks that hasn't been sold down properly.