Still around, but did sell 40% after the Rudd/Swan grenade was thrown. Apart from the grab itself the worst was probably leaving the taxing point hanging.
I guess there's 50 to 80 cents upside if all proceeds to plan, but Rudd has killed any competing offer, FL is dead for AOE, plus there's still the chance Shell reduce the offer (by say 50 cps), or pull out and refuse to invest further in Australia under Rudd - not that unlikely. Really running the chance of being an investment pariah much like Venezula or revolutionary Russia. The foreign ownership rhetoric (includes me after years of paying Aussie income taxes) was scary, and naive.
I understand a certain amount of extra taxation being imposed on iron ore and perhaps csg, but there are limits, esp in such a half-baked, ideological and retroactive manner. Big IOCs likely to avoid FIDs until a new PM with a more predictable manner, but some long term damage done. ROR hurdle must have gone up a couple of percent for sovereign risk, in addition to the direct impact, projects delayed and the chances of small outfits like AOE getting debt finance for FL must be close to Buckleys - Long live nationalisation.
AOE is dead man walking imho - no longer a long term investment. It's just the price we get now (or the return of the corpse).
EL
AOE Price at posting:
$4.92 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
